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obtaining trustworthy returns of the acreage are equally applicable here, and only estimates can be given, which we have done according to the best of our ability in our memorandum on opium. For our shortcomings in these respects we can only repeat that we crave the indulgence of not only the British delegation, but of all the delega tions of this honourable commission."
My idea as to the purpose of these general reports on the opium question in China is that though they may also serve for the enlightenment of public opinion as to the progress of the anti-opium campaign in China, they are primarily intended to furnish information to His Majesty's Government which may enable them at the end of the trial period of three years covered by the agreement with the Chinese Government to form a correct judgment as to whether China has fulfilled her part of the bargain, and made a corresponding reduction in the internal production and consumption of opium, so as to justify the Indian Government in continuing their policy of annually reducing by one-tenth the export of opium from India to China.
It is evident that we cannot expect reliable statistics by the end of next year, therefore we shall have to depend on the other method to which I have before referred as affording clear evidence that the necessary diminution in production has been effected, namely, the issue and proper enforcement of orders categorically forbidding the cultivation of opium. The Chinese authorities have themselves come to the conclusion that elaborate regulations for the registration of poppy lands and a propor- tionate annual reduction are unworkable, and that there is only one way of measuring the progress made towards the ultimate extinction of the poppy, and that is by issuing orders for its total prohibition after a certain date and taking energetic measures to see that the orders are enforced. Such orders were already in force last season in the provinces of Shansi, Yunnan, Fukien, Hunau, Kwangtung, and Hei-lung-kiang, and were successfully enforced in most cases. The two first named were two of the greatest opium-producing provinces of China, and His Majesty's Minister considered it to be of such importance to ascertain how far the order forbidding the growth of opium had been er forced that he instructed Mr. Brenan and Mr. Rose to under- I need not take journeys of investigation in Shansi and Yunnan respectively. repeat here what I have already written as to the great results achieved in these two provinces by vigorous personal administration; but apart from the actual reduction in the total amount of opium produced by China involved therein, the results obtained are the best possible augury for the success of the movement throughout the Empire, for there seems no reason to believe that what has been done in Shansi and Yuunan could not be accomplished elsewhere were the same energy and carnestness applied to the task. All that is needed are definite and simple orders and a fearless and deter- mined governor to secure their execution. I am strongly of opinion that prohibition of cultivation will now be enforced, of course with varying results, in practically all the provinces, and I also cannot help feeling that the majority of the high provincial authorities are convinced that no trifling with this question will be allowed, and that they will therefore do all that lies in their power to enforce the order that no more poppy is to be sown.
In one of the provinces of Manchuria-Hei-lang-chiang-total prohibition was already enforced last season, and resulted, if not in the total disappearance, yet certainly in a great reduction of the crop. Kwangtung has never been a large opium- producing province, and apparently what little was formerly grown is now to all intents and purposes suppressed. In Fukien also and in Hunan, where little poppy was ever grown, similar orders were enforced last season with a very large measure of success.
very
In Kuangsi the cultivation was never very extensive and has now been entirely cradicated.
The excellent results obtain in Hei-lung-chiang, Shansi, and Yunnan appear to have inspired governors of other provinces to issue similar orders, and the growing of opiam is from now on forbidden in the large majority of provinces, ie., Kirin and Fengtien, in Manchuria; Chihli, Shantung, Honau, Kiangsu, Anhui, Szechuan, Shensi, Kansu, and Kweichow.
As to Kirin and Fengtien, the activity shown by the Viceroy and other officials in Manchuria in regard to the suppression of smoking throughout the three provinces, and the eradication of the poppy in Hei-lung-cbiang, augurs well for the successful enforcement of the order in the two remaining provinces.
The prohibition of cultivation in Chihli was to take effect from last spring. A
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(certain reduction had been already effected, and there seems little doubt that if the new Viceroy, Tuan Fang, only shows himself stern and uncompromising in enforcing the prohibition the next reports from Chibli will show a great diminution, if not a total disappearance, of the poppy crop.
In Shantung the former governor, Yuan-shu-hsun, an energetic and progressive official, at first turned all his attention to the promulgation and enforcement of com- plicated rules for the suppression of smoking, but seeing that, though he made a certain amount of progress, his final object of abolishing smoking in Shantung could never be achieved by these means, be issued orders last year that no more poppy was to be grown. Unfortunately he was pursuaded to grant certain exemptions, but, nevertheless, the success that attended his efforts last season was so marked that it may
be prophesied with some certainty that now that it is absolutely forbidden to grow poppy in Shantung the cultivation will be practically stopped next year in this province also, provided always that Yuan-shu-hsun's successor shows the same will and energy that he himself did.
In Houan an order forbidding the cultivation of the poppy was issued last year, but apparently was not to become generally effective till this year. As a matter of fact, it was actively enforced already last year in the neighbourhood of the provincial capital, and all the growing crops were destroyed. There seems, however, to have been some doubt in the minds of officials and farmers whether they were allowed to grow poppy last season or not, the consequence being that though there was some reduction in area there was still a considerable quantity of opium harvested. Now, however, there can be no doubt as to the meaning of the order, and it ouly depends on the officials to see that it is properly enforced.
In Kiangsu and Anhui we have the same story, the order was issued too late last year to be carried out in its entirety. In both provinces the authorities showed energy, and large areas of land already planted with poppy were dug up, with the result that there was, if not entire cessation, at any rate a considerable decrease of production. The authorities intend to enforce the prohibition very rigorously this year, and we may look forward to satisfactory results in both these provinces.
In Szechuan the orders in regard to the diminution of the area of cultivation appear to have been too complicated for practical enforcement. Immediately around Chengtu, and in a less degree throughout the whole of the western half of this vast province, there has been some decrease in the amount of opium produced, but in the east of the province, especially along the Yang-tsze, the very reverse appears to have been the case; not only was there no diminution in the area of cultivation, but in some districts there was an increase, and new lands were planted with poppy. This was apparently due to the slackness of the local authorities, who, realising that last season was probably the farmers' last chance of deriving profit from a good crop of opium, allowed them "to make hay while the sun shines." The Viceroy has now forbidden the planting of any poppy, and the general impression appears to be that if he manages to convince the local officials and the people generally that he means to have his orders carried out at any price, we shall at all events see a marked reduction in the quantity of opium harvested next year, even if, in so large a province, where the cultivation of the poppy is the principal industry, it proves impossible to entirely eradicate it in such a short period.
The last three provinces, Shensi, Kansu, and Kweichow, in which the cultivation of the poppy is now totally prohibited, have hitherto been distinguished by the failure of the officials to take any efficient steps towards the suppression either of consumption. or production. In all three it looks as if the amount of poppy grown last season was actually greater than in 1906, and the issue of the prohibition will not suffice by itself to effect any improvement, unless the authorities at the same time alter their whole attitude and take effective, and, if necessary, harsh, measures to ensure its enforcement.
In Chekiang orders have been issued prohibiting the growing of opium, but they are not as definite as in other provinces, and it will not, therefore, be so easy to estimate how far they have been carried out. Apparently an attempt is to be made this season to prevent any poppy from being sown, but the final suppression is not to be insisted on till 1911, .e., in three years. The attempts made to reduce cultivation in this province have already been attended with such good results that a definite immediate prohibition would probably have been successfully enforced.
From Hupei the reports are very unsatisfactory. It is true that the province produces but little opium and imports large quantities from other provinces, but on the whole no effective steps have been taken either to diminish the number of
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